“I’m sorry to think that Labor is going to be financially dangerous,” Stuhlberger says.

In a very critical tone, the CEO and CIO of the famous manager Verde Asset Management, Louis Stuhlberger, expressed his belief that the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be able to adopt a slightly more controlling position regarding the balance of public accounts throughout his term.

“I’m sorry to think that the Labor Party could at least have some financial seriousness,” the CEO said during an event organized by the director on Tuesday (7).

Disillusionment with the current government gained strength after the change in the primary surplus target for 2025 and 2026, announced last month. “The PLDO of 2025 was a ‘Game changer’ It highlighted a huge amount of what can be expected from this government from a financial standpoint.

The executive stressed that the fiscal framework has become a “piece of fiction” and that what was thought to be “noise” has now become a “signal.” He summed up by saying: “We are back to the dangers of the inspector, and the great ease of changing the tire has put his credibility in doubt.”

On April 15, the central government’s initial outcome in 2025 stopped being a surplus of 0.5% of GDP and moved to a framework of balance between revenues and expenditures (zero deficit).

Since the new fiscal framework allows a tolerance range of 0.25 percentage points up or down, the new target would allow a deficit of up to 0.25% of GDP next year without the government incurring non-compliance – which could trigger sanctions and trigger precautionary measures. Financial incentives.

The PLDO 2025 also revised the promise of the 2026 primaries result, the last year of the current government. In this case, the target moves from a surplus of 1% of GDP to 0.25%, which equates to a positive balance of R$33.1 billion of revenues compared to expenditures.

In government accounts, spending growth expectations will reach 2.5% and 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. However, Verdi estimates that if those entering Social Security and BPC continue to grow at the current rate, this increase in expenditures will reach 3.4% and 3.7%, in that order, in 2025. and 2026 .