What is the return of R $ 10,000 in LCI, LCA, CDB, Tesuro Direto and savings with Selic at 11.25%?

The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided on another 0.50 percentage point cut in the Selik interest rate at the first meeting of 2024. This was the fifth consecutive cut in the economy's key interest rates, which amount to 11.25% annually. year.

Selec is already down 2.50 percentage points since August 2023, when it completed one year at 13.75%. As a result, credit becomes cheaper, but fixed income begins to pay investors less – although it is still attractive.

“A portion of fixed income is always important in any portfolio, at least for an emergency reserve. “When we talk about conservative investors, post-fixed income (linked to CDI) will always have the largest weight in portfolio composition, even with the lowest level of SELEC.” , points out Camilla Doll, Head of Fixed Income at XP.

but, Exactly how much money does he earn at 11.25% interest per year? Check out the answer in the chart below, with calculations prepared by the Fixed Income Analysis team at XP:

Saving (again) in the lamp

Since 2012, when Selic exceeds 8.5% per annum, book profitability is set at 0.5% per month – or 6.17% per annum – plus the variance in TR (reference rate). When the base rate falls below 8.5%, the return on savings will return to 70% of Selic plus TR.

Today, with lower TR with Selic, the initial investment of R$10,000 would turn into R$10,639 after a year, almost the same amount as when Selic was at 11.75%. In two years, savings rise to R$11,319 and in three years to R$12,042.

Public address after constant

Investing R$10,000 in Treasury Selec 2029 – a public bond available for investment in the Direct Treasury – will add up, with income, to R$10,923 in one year, compared to R$10,965 before the new rate cut in one year, already deducting duties and taxes. . In two years, the amount will reach R$12,019, and in three years, R$13,134.

LCI and LCA

Also exempt from income tax, LCIs and LCAs offer the same credit risk (possibility of default) as savings, but guarantee greater profitability – in exchange for longer terms, such as a 90-year grace period. days.

With the new Selic, an investment of R$10,000 in LCIs or LCAs that pay 90% of CDI will reach R$11,007 after one year. The value reaches R$12,117 in two years and R$13,262 in three years.

Convention on biological diversity

The investor rushed to Chinese development banks as Selic stock rose, but now he must double his calculations to see if the investment pays off. One is income tax: generally, it only kicks in under an LCI or LCA if the wage reaches at least 110% of the CDI, which typically results in 0.1 percentage points less than the Selic – i.e. now 11.15. %.

According to XP's calculations, currently, a CDB at 110% of CDI would turn R$10,000 into R$11,017 after one year, into R$12,225 in two years, and into R$13,464 in three years. Values ​​already take into account income tax deduction.

What to consider before investing

Such assets can be found on investment platforms, but it is important to take into account factors such as liquidity – which is not everyday for CDBs, LCIs and LCAs that pay more – and profitability: in general, the higher the rates, the higher the interest rates. Credit risks of issuing institutions.

Investments in CDB, LCI, LCA and savings are covered by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC), a kind of “insurance” that returns up to R$250,000 to the investor in case of problems with the issuer, such as intervention by the central bank. Public bonds do not have this protection, but are considered “risk-free” because they are issued by the federal government.