What Is The Kentucky Derby Bubble?

Beginning in 2013, Churchill Downs, the host of the Kentucky Derby, implemented a points system for horses hoping to qualify for the Derby and its distaff counterpart, the Kentucky Oaks. Important races, increasing in distance and prestige, for two-year-olds and young three-year-olds would give their first four finishers a set amount of points.

The Kentucky Derby allows the top twenty points-gatherers to enter, while the Oaks is capped at fourteen entries.

How The Points System Works

This system ensured that only horses who had experience at the top levels of racing within their respective divisions would be able to enter the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks. All of the prep races with points values are graded stakes at distances of a mile or longer, and most are on dirt or synthetic surfaces (the few exceptions being races in Europe). As the targets loom closer on the calendar, the point values generally get higher.

The earliest race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (as the points system is sometimes called) is the Grade III Iroquois Stakes for two-year-old males, held at Churchill Downs in September. The 2021 winner, Major General, gained ten points; four points went to runner-up Tough to Tame, two to third-placed Red Knobs, and one to fourth-placed Bourbon Heist.

Similarly, the Road to the Kentucky Oaks begins with the Grade III Pocahontas Stakes, also at Churchill Downs. The points are awarded on the same scale as the Iroquois Stakes, and were given to Hidden Connection, Mama Rina, Goddess of Fire, and Code for Success.

The points spread is much different the next spring, when serious Derby and Oaks bids are in full force. There are eight Kentucky Derby prep races which award points on a 100-40-20-10 scale: the Grade II Louisiana Derby (won by Epicenter), the Grade II UAE Derby (Crown Pride [JPN]), the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks (Tiz the Bomb), the Grade I Wood Memorial (Mo Donegal), the Grade I Santa Anita Derby (Taiba), the Grade I Florida Derby (White Abarrio), and the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes (Zandon).

Six Oaks preps use the same scale: the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks (Echo Zulu), the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks (Kathleen O), the Grade III Fantasy Stakes (Yuugiri), the Grade I Ashland Stakes (Nest), the Grade III Gazelle Stakes (Nostalgic), and the Grade II Santa Anita Oaks (Desert Dawn). Additionally, if a filly runs in a major Kentucky Derby prep race and then points toward the Oaks instead- as Secret Oath did this year- any points she earns against the males will be counted toward her Oaks points.

So What Is The Bubble?

When people refer to the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks “bubble,” they are referring to horses who are perilously close to gaining entry to the two races, and who typically at this point relies upon the misfortunes of their competitors to gain entry. You can find some tips about Kentucky Derby handicapping here: https://www.twinspires.com/kentuckyderby/handicapping 

At the time of this writing, Happy Jack is 20th on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 30 points. Shahama sits at 14th place on the Oaks leaderboard with 50 points. The horses immediately underneath them- Pioneer of Medina (25 points) and Shotgun Hottie (41 points), respectively- will not be able to gain a berth into the target races without the defection of a horse with more points.

What Are Their Chances?

At this point, entries for the Oaks and the Derby have not been officially drawn yet. There are a number of trainers who have not yet made up their minds about entering; specifically, Early Voting (number 14 on the Derby leaderboard) and Morello (number 15) may be pulled from Kentucky Derby consideration in favor of the Preakness or other races.

There is also the possibility that a horse who is preparing for the Kentucky Derby or Oaks will suffer some sort of (hopefully minor) physical issue which will necessitate a scratch. In recent years, the most notable scratch in time for an also-eligible horse to draw in occurred in 2019, when pre-race favorite Omaha Beach defected due to an entrapped epiglottis, allowing the maiden Bodexpress a berth into the Kentucky Derby.