More than 55 million US citizens have registered to vote early this year, according to updated data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. This figure represents 22.5% of the 244 million eligible voters in 2024 and 35.5% of the 155 million who went to the polls in 2020. But the presidential election promises to be one of the most unpredictable and tense in recent history. In America, even this significant portion of the electorate does not seem to indicate a definitive outcome.
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In the overall numbers, registered voters as Democrats led the way, with 10.8 million votes cast, or 39.2% of identified voters. Compared to 2020, the Republican advantage has decreased significantly. Now 9.9 million votes have been cast (36.1% of the total), whereas, in the last election, the difference was 8.3 percentage points. Another 6.8 million citizens (24.7%) appear independent (not registered with any party or minor parties).
The data reveal that Republicans are voting in greater numbers than in previous cycles, but it is not clear whether these voters are simply revising their Nov. 5 ballots or whether they are first-time nonvoters for President Donald Trump.
Based on data from the University of Florida, it can be said that women are voting at a significantly faster rate than men (54.2% vs. 43.8%), which appears to be good news for Kamala Harris. But it’s unclear whether the gender gap will actually be wider than in past cycles, or whether it will be as wide or narrow as it was in 2020 and 2022. Women make up the majority of the American electorate, and the women’s vote was decisive for Trump in 2016. Back for Joe Biden in 2020.
Some officials in seven swing states, which alternate between Democrats and Republicans, are recording early voting totals. However, they do not necessarily indicate an advantage for any of the candidates, who are statistically tied with all of them.
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It should also be noted that some of these states, including Georgia and North Carolina, made significant changes to their early voting rules beginning in 2020, restricting the availability of absentee ballots and absentee ballot boxes.
Also, the fact that a voter is registered with a party does not necessarily mean that he or she will vote for that party. There is no data on more than 20 million voters because they exercised their early voting rights in non-annexed states.
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The turnout for these early elections is the second highest in US history. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out all early voting records. States offered options to avoid the risk of contagion — many maintained — and about 70% of votes were cast in advance or by mail. During this time, about 29 million citizens voted in person at polling stations created for this purpose. And more than 25.9 million postal votes have been received, which has been claimed by more than 65 million people to date.
In 2020, Trump and Republicans demonized voting by mail and urged their voters to go to the polls on the official election day. This time, however, they’re encouraging early voting — in Pennsylvania alone, the party has pledged more than $10 million to persuade Republicans to vote by mail.
What is early voting and how does it work?
Early voting allows people to vote before Election Day. Most states offer both in-person and mail-in voting, although options vary from state to state. With mail-in voting, people can request that a ballot be mailed to them or, in some cases, receive it automatically. Eight states, including California and Nevada, mail ballots to all registered voters, as does the District of Columbia.
Historically, voters who could not make it to the polls on Election Day had to request an absentee ballot. But mail-in and absentee slips now work the same way in many states, and the terminology used varies. In 14 states – including Texas, South Carolina and Indiana – voters must provide a valid reason for non-voters to vote.
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In-person voting is also available. In some states, this can take the form of absentee voting — voters can go to their polling place, fill out a mail-in ballot, and mail it in. In others, votes are cast in electronic voting machines and the process is similar to election day.
The deadlines and requirements for in-person and mail-in early voting are different — as are the rules for voter registration, identification, the form for each ballot, and the counting method. There are states where it’s easy to register and vote, and others where elections are poorly organized and there are endless lines.
The information states provide about who exercises early voting rights is not always consistent. Some states have information on whether voters are registered Republicans, Democrats, or independents, while others do not. Likewise, some provide data on age, gender, and race, although most do not disclose this information. Hence, the picture is always confusing.
Which states offer early voting?
All states offer some form of mail-in voting, and all but three offer in-person early voting. This option is also available in the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire are three that are not, but they do offer absentee voting options in some cases.
Most states allow registration through October, and some allow same-day registration at the polls. Most states require mail ballots to be postmarked or delivered in person on or before Election Day. (with The New York Times)
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