US cotton harvest likely to be smaller after 2009/2010

USDA’s World Agricultural Production (WAP) report predicts the US cotton harvest will be slightly lower in October.

The USDA’s October Crop Production Report forecast 2023/24 U.S. cotton production at 12.8 million bales, 315,000 bales (2.4%) above last month’s forecast and nearly 1.7 million bales (11.4%) below the 2022/23 harvest. The area harvested in 2023/2024 is larger than last season, but the national yield is lower. If realized, the 2023/2024 US cotton harvest would be the smallest since 2009/2010 and the lowest national yield since 2015/2016.

See also: USDA: Historical Survey of the Brazilian Cotton Harvest

According to USDA estimates, the 2023/2024 US upland cotton crop is forecast at nearly 12.5 million bales, compared to last season’s 14.0 million bales. Over the past 20 years, October highland production forecasts have been 11 times higher than the final estimate and 8 times lower; No production forecast has been released for 2013. Past differences between the October forecast and the final production estimate indicate a 2 in 3 probability of a 2023/2024 upland harvest between 11.6 million and 13.3 million bales.

According to the report, upland cotton production this season is projected to be lower in three cotton belt regions and higher in another. In the Southeast, cotton production for 2023/2024 is forecast at 4.3 million bales – 20% below 2022/2023 and 9% below the 2018/19-2022/2023 average – a 7-year low partially offset by above production. – Average yield. The area under cotton harvest in 2023/2024 is projected to be 2.2 million acres. Southeast yields are projected at 935 pounds per acre harvested this season, compared to the 5-year average of 888 pounds.

Cotton production in the Delta is estimated at approximately 3.6 million bales in 2023/2024, the lowest in 7 years as both area and yield are below the 5-year average. In 2023/2024, cotton harvested area is projected to be 1.6 million acres, while the region’s yield is projected at 1,083 pounds per harvested acre, the lowest in 6 years.