US anti-coup pressure in 2022 may be more important than it appears

Recent revelations about anti-democratic efforts and schemes by members of the government Bolsonaro After all, the lack of widespread support from the Brazilian armed forces suggests that a coup did not take place. All indications are that a series of military leaders – among them, generals Walter Braga Neto, Estevem Theophilo and Mario Fernández, and then-Naval Commander Brigadier Almir Garnier – backed Bolsonaro's plans despite being defeated in the election. Others such as Army Commander Friar Gomes and Air Force Commander Baptista Jr. seem to have been against it.

It will take years to get the full picture of what happened, and many details will still emerge from those critical months in the second half of 2022, but there are signs that a deeper analysis should include more than just the domestic situation. Externality – Emphasis on efficiency AmericaDuring this part of 2022, the Brazilian armed forces pressured to respect the outcome of the presidential elections, and it seems to have played a very relevant and potentially decisive role.

By the end of 2021, the concept in White House The Bolsonaro government represents a potential danger to democracy in Brazil. The Brazilian president continued Talking about the alleged fraud in the 2020 US elections is, in fact, questioning the legitimacy of the Biden administration.And if he loses in next year's election, he has signaled that he may try to derail a peaceful transition of power.

In response, the Biden government launched a diplomatic campaign whose main target was precisely the Brazilian armed forces – identified by the United States as a key actor in a moment of democratic weakness in Brazil – making it clear that it did not recognize the results. The generals' vote could lead to a sharp reduction in U.S. military ties to Brazil, where cooperation between the two countries is highly valued by those in uniform in Brazil. The State Department, the CIA, the White House, the Senate, and the Pentagon are involved in the campaign to ensure that the election results are accepted. Within the scope of this initiative, a visit to Brazil is most appropriate Lloyd AustinSecretary of Defense, who did Speech He made it clear at meetings in Brasilia that “the armed forces and the security forces must be under civilian control,” with several references to the need to protect democracy.

In addition to Austin, the head of the CIA and national security adviser to the US president visited Brazil before the election, which is unusual in US diplomacy. The main focus of the conversations were the soldiers who were seen as the most radicalized, including Brigadier Almir Garnier. The takeaway message for Brazilian political and military leaders is always the same: A democratic breakdown would not only have consequences for military cooperation between the United States and Brazil, but would also isolate the South American country diplomatically in the West. The State Department, meanwhile, asserted full confidence in the Brazilian electoral system.

Within hours of the announcement of Brazil's election results, President Biden congratulated the president Lula. The then Vice President MourãoIn turn, after Bolsonaro's defeat, He wrote On social media, Bolsonaro is trying to calm down the pro-protesters, who “now the armed forces must carry out a coup and put the country in a difficult situation before the international community”; It seems to reinforce the thesis that an external environment hostile to democratic decay is important to ensure that the armed forces do not overstep their bounds.

None of this is to say that the United States alone is responsible for protecting Brazilian democracy in 2022. But it cannot be denied that the events of the time cannot be understood without taking into account the American diplomatic campaign. Washington adopted an anti-1964 stance that signaled support for the coup plotters and played a key role in the breakdown of Brazilian democracy.

The actions of the United States in 2022 are still understudied in the literature of international relations – after all, because the key figures involved in the current US government are still occupying their positions and cannot speak openly – an interesting case for several reasons, including paradox. Situation : At the start of his term, Bolsonaro presented himself as a pro-American president; And presidential candidate Lula da Silva in January 2023 has a long history of criticizing US foreign policy in Latin America. Although Lula thanked Joe Biden for his support of Brazilian democracy, bilateral relations with the United States have seen little progress since his return to the Palacio Plano.