See what major controversies could define US legislative elections

Midterm elections for the Arab Republic of Egypt United Statescheduled for Tuesday, the eighth, presents different scenarios for the Senate and the House, but both have major differences that should determine the balance of power between the Republican Party it’s the Democrat. In the Senate, currently evenly divided (each party has 50 senators), the outcome has been uncertain since the primaries. In the House, the Republican Party is expected to regain the majority, but it is not known how wide it will be.

Key controversies should define these trends. In the Senate, the national environment is beginning to be more favorable for Republicans, but the position of some candidates keeps Democrats a chance. This is the case of dispute New Hampshire, for example. Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan He was re-elected smoothly, but he saw the Republican candidate Don Bolduc Do a good job of searching.

Bolduc is a retired general, new to politics, who supported the idea of ​​fraud in the 2020 presidential election, which the former president and a Republican also popularized. Donald Trump. The primaries winner Boldock was surprised to announce Biden had just won and that his popularity was in jeopardy, but little by little he was able to reclaim himself in the race.

in North CarolinaAnd the Another race may decide whether the outcome will be more favorable for Republicans or Democrats in the Senate. Democrat and former Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, Sherry Beasleyfaces republican Ted Budwhich is trying to retain the Republican seat in the Senate – currently held by Senator Richard Burr, who is retiring from office.

Budd campaigns discreetly to take advantage of the country’s more Republican-friendly environment. Meanwhile, his allies campaigned against Paisley to influence his popularity. Given President Joe Biden’s currently unpopularity, this might work; But if Beasley wins the seat, the Senate majority scenario is closer to Democrats.

The same thing happens in Ohio If Democratic Representative Tim Ryan, who is now running for Senate, defeats Republican J.D. Vance. Both are vying for the vacancy left by Senator Rob Portman, who ended his term in this election.

These three states are located on the east coast of the United States, where the time zone is ahead of the west coast. The results were published earlier and may point the way for the rest of the country.

PennsylvaniaAnd the Also on the East Coast, it could deliver results as early as the others mentioned, but there’s a good chance it will result in Republican strife. Mohamed OzA famous doctor and a democrat John FettermanThe deputy governor will not be released until the morning of Wednesday the ninth due to state electoral rules that prohibit mail-in counting until Election Day.

Other states with major Senate races are ArizonaNevada, Washington, Colorado, and Georgia. In the first, the Democratic senator Mark Kelly He appeared to be heading for reelection, contradicting expectations that his race would be among the toughest, but the movement has begun to change in recent weeks, with conservative Blake Masters leading in the polls.

in NevadaSenator Catherine Cortez Masto He faces a worst-case scenario among Democrats—and might be threatened by a friendly outcome for Republicans. The same thing happens in Colorado in WashingtonWhere the Democrats Michael Bennett And the Patty Murrayrespectively, are the favorites to win but are at risk if there is a Republican wave.

The main disagreement in Georgia This is perhaps the most predictable: With the Senate currently completely divided, the definition of a majority can only be decided next month. That’s because state law requires the winner to receive 50% of the vote. Otherwise, there will be a second round on December 6.

The domestic dispute between the Democratic senator Raphael Warnock and the republican Herschel Walker. Polls show Warnock ahead of Walker, who has spent the past few weeks battling accusations by his ex-girlfriends of an alleged abortion he paid for, known for his anti-abortion stance. Other polls have given Walker an advantage, but almost no poll shows that anyone got more than 50% of the vote in the first race.

Some Republican officials insist Walker could reach 50% of the vote if the state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, wins convincingly.

In the House, Republicans need to win only five more seats than they have now to get a majority. The scenario is favorable, given that in 22 midterm elections, between 1934 and 2018, the president’s party lost an average of 28 seats. The odds of the Democratic Party staying the current supremacy, 220 deputies to 212, are low.

There is uncertainty about how much majority the Republicans will be able to win. It can be a hard-line majority or more than 30 parliamentarians, subjugating an absolute number of deputies.

Some differences are also crucial to determining the size of the majority. In Virginia, Representative Eileen Luria (D) saw redesigning her district in favor of Republicans. If you lose, it won’t be much of a surprise; But if she wins, Democrats can feel confident.

In the district of Representative Abigail Spannberger, also a Democrat, the redesign is in her favour, but nonetheless, re-election looks difficult. If she loses, the Republicans can pass 20 seats. Another sign that the “Republican wave” could be significant is the potential defeat of Democrat Jennifer Wexton.

in New HampshireD., a former Trump administration press official, Carolyn Levitt, 25, ran a campaign publicly associated with Trump. If you defeat Democrat Chris Pappas, that will send a negative message to Democrats from a new generation of politicians.

in ConnecticutDemocratic Representative Jahanna Hayes could lose to Republican Georgia Logan, who is black. If that happens, there could be a wave of black Republican members of the House of Representatives.

in state Rhode Islandpolls suggest that Alan Fong, an Asian American, could win in a state where Democrats usually dominate.

On the other hand, if Democrats from Republican districts have historically predominated, there is an indication that the “Republican wave” may be smaller than expected. This is the case of Representatives Jared Golden of Maine, Tom Malinowski of New Jersey, and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania. In northeastern Ohio, Emilia Sykes could ease Democrats’ concerns further.

Other opportunities exist at the sites where far-right Republican candidates have run. Democrats have made statements that American democracy is in danger and remembered the January 6 attack on the Capitol, which was carried out by Donald Trump, in an attempt to lower their votes. / The New York Times