Savings withdrawals break second historical record at R$87.8 billion; Did it bear fruit?

According to information released by the Central Bank on Monday (8), total withdrawals from savings accounts in 2023 exceeded deposits by R$87.8 billion. The values ​​represent the second-largest net recovery in this way since the beginning of measurement in 1995. The negative record dates back to 2022, when outflows exceeded inflows by R$103.2 billion.

Negative results and low performance

Although there was a positive result in the difference between resource inflows and outflows, with net inflows reaching R$13.77 billion in December, the year ended with a negative balance, with total outflows reaching R$3.92 trillion against deposits totaling R$3.83 trillion. . According to the analyses, most months of 2023 had negative results, with the exception of December and June, in which net inflows in the latter amounted to R$2.6 billion. Highlights are the high net outflow in January, which totaled R$33.6 billion.

Expectations remain due to the decline in purchasing power of Brazilians in the face of inflation exceeding 10% and extreme changes in interest rates. Despite the reduction in the basic rate (Selic), which is 11.75% per annum, the savings still generate only 0.50% per month (or 6.17% per annum), plus the TR (reference rate), ultimately leaving the pay lower. Other fixed income investments.

Trends for 2024

With a stockpile of R$983 billion in December 2023, some experts suggest that the trend of net withdrawals from savings is likely to continue throughout 2024, even as interest rates are expected to fall. One of the factors that explain this trend is the interest differential between savings and other investments. Moreover, the over-indebtedness of the population is also having an impact, as are changes in the Selic rate, which is expected to end in 2024 at 9% per year. A change in the scenario is assumed to occur only in 2025, with possible changes in the economy.