Retail sales fell 1.3% in September, for the second consecutive month of decline. Given is worse than expected

São Paulo – Retail sales fell 1.3% in September compared to August, the second consecutive decline, after the biggest increase this year in July, when it grew 3.1%. In the year, the retail segment has grown by 3.8% and in the last 12 months, an increase of 3.9%. In the annual comparison, the decrease was 5.5%. The data was reported on Thursday (11) the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

The data was worse than expected. According to Refinitiv consensus, sales were expected to decline 0.6% in September compared to August and decrease by 4.25% compared to September 2020.

“This second month of decline comes with reasonable strength, but to a lesser degree than in August (-4.3%). After the big drop in April last year, the beginning of the epidemic, there was a very rapid recovery that led to the record level in October and November 2020. Then we got The first hit with a new strong decline in December and two varying months very close to the same pre-pandemic level, until March, the month in which there was a new trajectory for recovery. Since February 2020, the sector has seen a lot of volatility”, analyzes the director of PMC, Cristiano Santos.

Santos explains that volatility has different factors for each of the peaks. Since February 2020, there have been three negative peaks (April 2020, March 2021, and September 2021) and at least two high peaks (October and November 2020 and July 2021).

In the latter, as of September 2021, the limiting factor was inflation. This becomes evident when we compare the decline in volume of 1.3% and the change in revenue of -0.2%, which is stable. The factor that reduces volume is inflation. Commodity prices rose. In fuels and lubricants, for example, revenue was -0.1%, quite stable, and volume was down 2.6%. The same is true for Hiper and supermarkets, which range from 0.1% in revenue to -1.5% in volume. But the same factor does not apply to fabrics, clothing and footwear, which decreased in volume (-1.1%) and in revenue with a larger decline, indicating the contraction caused by lower demand,” explains Santos.

He notes that while the December 2020 and January 2021 declines were due to the end of emergency aid; The recovery from March onwards is due to the easing of social distancing measures, with greater opening to trade.

Of the eight activities surveyed, six had negative rates in September. The most intense falls were office equipment and materials, information and communication technology (-3.6%), furniture and household appliances (-3.5%), and fuels and lubricants (-2.6%). But the largest activity in shaping the September rate were supermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.5%).

In expanded retail, which includes, in addition to retail, vehicles and building materials, sales volume fell 1.1% in September, compared to August. The negative impact came from a decline of 1.7% in vehicles, motorcycles and parts and 1.1% in building materials, respectively, after a variance of 0.3% and a decline of 1.2% in August.

5.5% year-on-year decrease

Compared to September 2020, retail is down 5.5%, with seven negative rates among the eight activities surveyed: Furniture and Home Appliances (-22.6%), Office Equipment and Supplies, Computers and Communications (-14.8%), and Other Personal Goods. and household use (-6.9%), fuels and lubricants (-4.0%), supermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-3.7%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-3.4%) and textiles, clothing and footwear (- 0.1%).

The only sector that recorded a positive area rate was pharmaceuticals, medicine, orthopedics, perfumes and cosmetics (4.3%).

Compared to August, retail trade experienced negative changes in 25 of the 27 federal units in September, highlighting: Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.9%), Santa Catarina (-3.6%) and Rio Grande do Norte (-3.4%).

In expanded retail, the negative change between August and September (-1.1%) was followed by 23 of the 27 union units, focusing on: Mato Grosso do Sul (-4.7%), Tocantins (-4.0%) and Maranhão (-3.6%).

Compared to September 2020, retail sales decreased in 26 out of 27 units, highlighting the following points: Maranhão (-12.3%), Sergipe (-11.9%) and Rondônia (-11.8%).

In broad retail, there was a predominance of negative results in 20 out of 27 units, highlighting: Maranhão (-11.5%), Amazonas (-10.9%) and Amapá (-9.4%). On the other hand, with positive pressures, there are 7 of 27 union units, highlighting: Pernambuco (13.9%), Goiás (6.2%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (4.2%).

(with IBGE News Agency)

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