Minister says fundraising from wealthy people was a surprise and target should not be revised

National Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron announced that the spending block in the 2024 budget could be zero in the first assessment scheduled for March, if revenues remain at the same initial pace this year. According to Cerone, preliminary data indicate that revenues are in line with expectations, with the aim of reaching the financial goal of closing the deficit in 2024.

A positive surprise, he says, was the entry of resources in January from offshore (offshore) resource taxes and exclusive investment funds in Brazil, linked to the so-called “ultra-rich”. The minister emphasizes that the data has not yet been consolidated, but the flow of these resources exceeded the initial revenue estimates, which amounted to about R$ 20 billion for this year.

“At the moment, there is no review yet. The IRS is re-evaluating each of the measures, but, in principle, there are no major changes regarding our expectations. The month’s collection performance is good, in line with the budget law planning. If achieved, [o ano] It starts well. Ceron said in an interview with Russia Today: “Of course, this matter is dynamic over time, but today it paints a good scenario for the year 2024, enhancing the possibility of achieving the goals that were agreed upon.” Newspaper Released on Friday (2).

Removing contingent risks may reduce pressure to change the fiscal target set by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Cerone highlights that if revenues remain in line with expectations in February, without major changes, no adjustments will be necessary. A range of 0.25 percentage points is stated, which allows for a negative result up to this extent.

Regarding the possibility of exceeding the zero deficit target in 2024, which could affect the government's fiscal space in 2026, the year of the presidential election, Ceron points out that the 2022 result showed that fiscal issues are not decisive in the elections. It is noteworthy that the decision on public accounts will not be based on this factor.

Regarding the correction of the income tax schedule recently announced by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Ceron states that it is under study, and should not significantly affect the financial target. He highlights that there will be compensation and that this measure does not significantly change the financial scenario.

On the other hand, the temporary measure to re-burden sectors of the economy may still raise discussions. Ceron estimates that the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (PERC) and compensation have been handled well, but the issue of exemption is more controversial and is being analyzed by the Minister of Finance.

The minister adds: “I think everyone understands that it was a temporary and emergency benefit, that it has lost its meaning, that it is being abused and has a completely different effect than what was approved.”

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