Marcos Coimbra standardizes all opinion polls in 2021 and 2022 and concludes: The scenario is one of almost absolute stability

Lula’s leadership is steady, and in head-to-head polls, it has ranged between 45% and 52% since May 2021
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247 – Sociologist Marcus Coimbra, president of the Vox Populi Institute, which specializes in public opinion polls, compiled the average of all election polls published in 2021 and 2022 in a single document. Evaluation is that the scenario is almost of absolute stability.

The data shows that former President Lula (Labour), since May 2021, has remained ahead in the presidential race, swinging between 45% and 52% of voting intentions in personal opinion polls.

In remote polls, Lula was lower than Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in March 2021, but won the lead the following month, in April, when he had 35% of voting intentions. Since then, Labor has grown to receive 49% of voting intent. Currently, the average for the former president is 44%.

The Coimbra presentation also addresses the evaluation of the Federal Government. In face-to-face polls, 38% assessed Jair Bolsonaro’s government in February 2021 as negative. The percentage peaked (53%) in December 2021, and is currently 51%.

In remote polls, they rate Jair Bolsonaro’s January 2021 government as “appalling” with 45%. The percentage peaked (58%) in September 2021, and is currently 55%.

The surveys considered head-to-head were as follows:

• Feb – IPEC, CNT/MDA (Bolsonaro government assessment only)
• May – Vox Populi, Datafolha, Ipsos;
• June – APEC
• July – Datafolha, CNT/MDA, Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest
• September – Datafolha, Quest, Datatempo, EPIC
• November – Vox Populi, Quaest, Sensus, Paraná Research
• December – Quest, CNT MDA, Datafolha
• January – Quest, Parana, Fox
• February – Quaest / CNT MDA

The remote surveys were:

• January – PoderData, Ipespe, Atlas
• February – PoderData, Ipespe
• March – PoderData, Ipespe, Atlas, Big Data, Forum,
• April – PoderData, Ipespe, Idea / Exam
• May – PoderData, Ipespe, Ideia / Exame, Atlas, Mapa
• June – PoderData, Ipespe, Ideia / Exame
• July – PoderData, Ipespe, Ideia / Exame, Atlas, ModalMais / Futura
• August – PoderData, Ipespe, ModalMais / Futura
• September – PoderData, Ipespe, Atlas, ModalMais / Futura
• October – PoderData, Ipespe, ModalMais / Futura
• November – PoderData, Ipespe, Ideia / Exame, Atlas, ModalMais / Futura, Ponteio Política
• December – Ipespe, Poder Data
• January – Ipespe (2 surveys), Poder data (2 surveys), ModalMais/Futura
• January – Ipespe (1 survey), Poder data (1 survey)

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