Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: New Poll Shows Debate’s Impact on Presidential Race

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Only a handful of voters changed their support after last week’s presidential debate, which featured Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll released Tuesday.

Although many political analysts and media experts said Harris bested Trump during the debate — the first and perhaps only face-to-face encounter before Election Day on Nov. 5 — only 3 percent of debate viewers said the showdown in Philadelphia made them reconsider their support for one candidate, according to a national Monmouth University poll.

More than 70 percent of those interviewed said the debate between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates did not raise doubts about the candidate they already supported. Eight percent said the debate raised some doubts, but did not change their decision to support. In addition, 17 percent of respondents said they did not watch or listen to any part of the debate.

“Change in this election is measured in centimeters, not meters at this point,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “We’re basically at the point where 10,000 more voters in a key state could determine the outcome. Polls show us the broad contours of the race, but they can’t measure these kinds of subtle changes.”

Trump claimed victory in social media posts and in some interviews on Fox News after the debate. “It was my best debate ever,” he wrote in a social media post. “We had a great night, and we won the debate,” he said during an interview on “Fox & Friends.”

In contrast, Harris, at her first post-debate rally, accused Trump of running “the same tired show, the same tired script that we’ve heard for years… with no plans for how to meet the needs of the American people because, you know, it’s all about him, it’s not about you.”

According to the Monmouth poll, 49% of registered voters nationwide said they would definitely (39%) or maybe (10%) vote for Harris. In a separate question, just over 40% said they would definitely (34%) or maybe (10%) vote for Trump.

Nearly every national poll taken after the debate shows Harris with a narrow to moderate lead over Trump in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House. However, the race remains within the margin of error in the seven key states that are likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

Murray stressed that Trump is doing better with motivated voters than with the general electorate. That includes a fair number of voters who may have stayed away from the 2020 election. They may have been tired of Trump when they stayed home four years ago, but that feeling has gone away, and they are now more dissatisfied with Biden’s presidency.”

“To balance that out, Democrats will try to motivate voters who already have concerns about Trump but are not fully engaged in the election,” he added.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted Sept. 11-15, and 803 registered voters were interviewed. The poll’s overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.