Forget the ‘Harris Trade’; Strategists Say Election Depends All on Trump

Investing.com – Investors should avoid trades that favor Kamala Harris winning the White House race, as the upcoming presidential election “depends solely on Trump,” according to strategists at Alpine Macro.

In a recent report, analysts noted that Harris’ entry into the presidential race has revitalized the Democratic base, reviving supporters who were previously disillusioned with Biden’s candidacy. Although Harris has not yet been formally nominated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, she has already secured the nomination with the support of a majority of Democratic delegates.

But they warn that Harris’s rise in the polls “may be peaking.”

“Despite the competitiveness of the race, the Trump campaign has shown more resilience than it appears,” they added.

Alpine highlights that support for Trump, especially in swing states, remains strong, indicating a “structural improvement” in his level of support compared to previous elections.

Strategists list several reasons why they believe Trump has an advantage in this election.

First, they point out that Harris’ appeal is limited to the Democratic base, with no evidence of her appeal among centrist voters, who are key in battleground states. While the current vice president has managed to shore up left-wing support, Alpine Macro warns that this may come at the expense of broader appeal, especially among moderate and swing voters.

Moreover, they point out that the Trump campaign has avoided direct attacks on Harris, and may be waiting for the full definition of the Democratic platform before intensifying the campaign.

“As we have previously noted, Harris is a weak candidate, despite recent positive media coverage,” the strategists commented.

“She is effectively running on Biden’s record, which remains unpopular. Democrats and Harris as vice president also face a credibility problem, as voters see them as covering up for Biden’s mental decline.”

Alpine Macro also notes that Harris is positioning herself further to the left than Biden on many policy issues, which could draw criticism for being outside the U.S. political mainstream. They note that her record as a senator and attorney general will be closely scrutinized.

Moreover, strategists say Harris is not known for being an effective speaker, though she may exceed expectations in that regard. Her performance in the debate against Trump, tentatively scheduled for September 10, will be crucial.

Ultimately, Alpine Macro stresses that fundamentals still favor Trump and advises against trading based on Harris’ current strength in the polls.

Although the race is tight, strategists believe Trump maintains an advantage, noting that Harris’ recent surge in the polls is “just a passing fad.”