Energy consumption is rising, but weather forecasts show good news

The economic recovery, simultaneous with the lack of rain in the country, called the warning of energy professionals: if this continues, the water crisis will harm hydropower stations and lead to power rationing. This week, the ONS (National System Operator) helped feed the discussion with good and bad news.

The bad thing is that the sector increased the load in August 2021 by 4.7% compared to the same month of 2020 due to the resumption of services and reheating of part of the industries.

In the cumulative result for the past 12 months, pregnancy presented a positive variance of 5.2% compared to the previous period.

The good thing is that, according to meteorologists, the country should rain in the coming months, which will dispel the specter of water scarcity in the reservoirs.

“The meteorological situation assessed at the end of September at a meeting of the working group to monitor the service to the national interconnected system indicated that the transition to the wet period had begun to take shape, in principle within normal parameters,” says the ONS.

FMU electrical engineering professor Cesar Lorero says the risk of a breakdown in the electrical system has not been ruled out.

“The resumption of economic activities is responsible for an increase in consumption, which was expected. But, in addition to this, it is important to stress that the eventual strong return from the industrial sector may significantly affect the total consumption, which may indicate an increase in the risks of rationing “, as you say.

The National Bureau of Statistics, in its statement on the load increase in August, explained that the increase was partly due to higher temperatures, which increase electricity costs. “As spring approaches and temperatures rise, consumption is expected to increase,” Loreiro concludes.

And the agency stated, Friday (1), that the trend is for the rainy season, which indicates that it can be postponed in the country due to lack of rain, to come within the normal period also in 2021.

All of the scenarios considered, says the Office for National Statistics, indicate that there will be no energy deficit even in November, the period when wind and solar power plants production is low.

However, it will be necessary to “partially utilize the operational reserve, that is, to use a part of the resources available to the system to meet demand in cases of equipment failure or anticipated deviations” in other words, a larger increase in the electricity bill.

The FMU professor asserts with optimism the national system operator that the information that energy consumption was 4.7% nationwide, but 3% in the Midwest and Southeast regions, where the water crisis tends to be more severe.

The North and Northeast subsystems increased demand by 7.8% and the Southern region by 5.9%.