Conservatives could face 1997 defeat in UK, says research

Elections are expected to be held by the end of this year
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(Reuters) – British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party could face an electoral defeat equal to the heavy setback suffered by Labor in 1997, according to a YouGov poll published in the Telegraph newspaper.

Ahead of an election expected later this year, polls predict Labor will be on track to win 385 seats, compared to 1997 when Tony Blair brought Labor to power, with the Conservatives losing just 169 seats and retaining 169 seats.

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This would be an 11.5% swing for Keir Starmer's Labor Party, the biggest fall in support for a ruling party since 1906, the newspaper said.

The 14,000 people interviewed by YouGov are seven times more than the usual number of people involved in the company's surveys. The Telegraph reported that the research was carried out by a group of Conservative donors.

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Recent polls have repeatedly shown the Conservatives trailing Labour. A Youkov poll in November put Sunak's party behind by 19 percentage points.

Asked about the latest prediction of a heavy electoral defeat, Sunak said the only important thing was the national election, which is due to be held by January 2025, but he suggested it would be held later this year.

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“There have been a lot of polls in the last year. There will be hundreds of polls. The only thing that matters is what happens in the general election,” he told reporters.

“The choice is clear in this election. It's about acting on our plan.”

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Starmer said he was not taking anything too seriously ahead of the election.

“We have to win every vote, respect every vote, always fight like we're 5% behind,” he told reporters on Monday.

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