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A woman drinks water in Istanbul, Turkey, in 40°C temperature in July this year
- author, Matt McGrath and Mark Pointing
- scroll, BBC News
Researchers say extreme global temperatures are likely to continue until 2024.
It is now practically inevitable that this year will become the hottest on record, with the last two months of 2023 unlikely to reverse that trend.
November continues to record high temperatures around the world.
The October temperature record adds to this year’s list of global temperature records.
The total number of days exceeding the politically significant 1.5°C warming mark has already reached a new record, and well before the end of the year.
July was so hot that it was probably the hottest month in 120,000 years, while average September temperatures broke the previous record by 0.5°C.
October wasn’t as exceptionally hot as September, but it still broke the record for the month by an “exceptional” margin, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The month was about 1.7°C warmer than the pre-industrial average – that is, compared to the period before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels.
The heat recorded so far this year means it is “almost certain” that 2023 will become the world’s hottest year on record, surpassing 2016.
This is the opinion of several scientific organisations, including Copernicus and the NOAA and Berkeley Earth groups, both in the USA.
“We really don’t see any sign that the record-breaking string of exceptional months this year is going away anytime soon,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth.
“At this point, it is almost certain across all data sets that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. The probability is over 99%,” he told BBC News.
“Recording human suffering”
While many researchers are concerned about the scientific impacts of this year’s record temperatures, others point to its real-world consequences.
“The fact that we are seeing this year’s record temperature also means record human suffering,” Frederik Otto, from Imperial College London, said of the findings.
“This year, extreme heatwaves and droughts exacerbated by these extreme temperatures have killed thousands, caused people to lose their livelihoods, become displaced, etc. These are the events that matter.”
The main cause of the heat is the constant emissions of carbon dioxide, especially from burning fossil fuels. This year is capped off by the rise of El Niño – a natural event in which warm water rises to the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean and releases additional heat into the atmosphere.
El Niño conditions have gained strength in recent months, but have not yet reached their peak.
“This El Niño phenomenon is strange. Some of the warming we are seeing is due not only to the increase in El Niño, but also to this rapid replacement of El Niño conditions (an ocean cooling climate event), which has led to lower temperatures in recent years,” Hausfather said. .
Scientists are not sure whether El Niño is different from other records in recent decades. Some worry that this could cause the ocean surface temperature to warm more compared to previous events, such as those in 1997 and 2015. But there is no consensus on this matter.
The year so far has been a record 1.43 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus, who expects temperatures to remain high in the coming months.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said a combination of her and UN data suggests 2023 could be “hotter than anything the planet has seen in 125,000 years.”
This conclusion is based on observations made at weather stations, as well as complex computer models of the climate system and very old climate records from ice cores and tree growth rings, for example.
This data creates a worrying climate context weeks before the UN climate summit COP28, which begins on November 30.
“The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action at COP28 has never been greater,” Burgess said.
The effects of rising temperatures around the world
Temperatures in October were well above the global average, and many parts of the world faced extreme conditions.
El Niño-related drought has led to the driest October in the Panama Canal since 1950. Arid conditions continue to impact operations along this important trade route heading into the driest time of the year.
Parts of the Middle East were also hit by drought, while East Africa was hit by deadly floods.
In Italy, temperatures in October rose more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal, and this also coincided with major floods in some parts of the country.
In the UK, temperatures were around 1°C above average, and southern England was around 1.7°C warmer than normal. Wet conditions also remained high, with rainfall averaging about 40% above average.
Temperatures remain high around the world during November, with hundreds of heat records set this month in Japan.
Europe recorded temperatures above 35°C for the first time in November, with record highs recorded in several parts of Greece.
With these rising temperatures, there are concerns that new extreme events may occur in the coming months.
For example, parts of Australia have already issued warnings about increased bushfire risk.
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