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To achieve this goal, the country must overcome problems such as unpredictable vaccine supply and low adherence to the 2nd standard (Stephen Mahe / Reuters).
70% of the population in Brazil is vaccinated Govit-19 Until December, if you maintain the current average of one million doses per day. This rate is considered optimal to control the spread of the vaccine virus. However, experts say the country needs to overcome problems such as unexpectedly administering vaccines and adhering to the 2nd dose less.
About 147 million Brazilians need to be completely vaccinated to achieve this coverage. Between purchases and donations, Brazil will have 41 million doses of Jansen by the end of this year, single use – 3.8 million has already arrived. A further 106 million people need to be vaccinated on the two-dose schedule. In total, 70% of the population must use 253 million doses for immunization.
Considering that Brazil has already used about 115.7 million vaccines – between the 1st dose, the 2nd dose and the single dose – we still need to use another 137.3 million doses. The data came from the Ministry of Health and may be out of date. The country is vaccinating one million people a day, on average, at least once a month. Therefore, based on the planned deliveries for the coming months, it is estimated that this amount will be maintained.
“Brazilians want to be vaccinated, and it is clear,” said Isabella Pallal, vice president of the Brazilian Immunization Association. “Therefore, the factor that can really affect the evolution of the immunization campaign is the advent of vaccines.”
Earlier this year, the health ministry was criticized for delaying the purchase of vaccines. Later, problems with the arrival of raw materials delayed the transfers. “The table of our sizes is complex,” says epidemiologist Esprito Santo Ethel Magel of the Federal University, who believes 70% of December is “the best case”.
Another concern is the addition of Isabella, which is less adherent to the 2nd dose. According to her, the most effective communication and actively looking for those who are at fault can help solve the problem. “The Brazilian did not take the 2nd dose because he did not remember.”
According to the vacuum of the Federal University of Statistics and Data Science at the University of Alagos, 34.6% of Brazilians who should have already taken AstraZeneca’s 2nd level are behind the table (2.6 million). Two million Coronavac reinforcements are pending. Numbers 11 to.
To achieve its role in drastically reducing cases and deaths it is necessary to achieve the coverage expected by the country with two doses of vaccine. “We know that one dose already works, but it is necessary to take both doses, and there is no delay,” Isabella insists.
For example, studies already protect against the two-dimensional Astrogenega or Pfizer delta variant – originally discovered in India and highly contagious – but one dose is not enough. The progress of this strain has increased epidemics around the world and halted plans to reopen the business.
Out
According to Ever World in Data, a website affiliated with the University of Oxford, only Malta and Iceland have been able to vaccinate at least 70% of their population. Of the countries with a population of over one million, the closest to this brand is the United Arab Emirates (66%).
Other places approaching this level, such as the United Kingdom, Israel and parts of the United States, are already seeing declining deaths. Epidemiologist Pedro Hallal explains that 70% is an estimate. “Indicators could improve when at least 40% of people receive a single dose of the vaccine. When 70% are fully vaccinated, covit can be a very minor problem.” He hopes Brazil will reach the index by the end of December.
According to microbiologist Luis Gustavo Amaral, 70% of the “magic number” is calculated based on the effectiveness of the vaccine and the most effective immunizing agents. The rate varies as Brazil uses different types of vaccines.
Although many countries already provide vaccines for all adults, such as the United States, Israel and the United Kingdom, there are difficulties in expanding coverage. As for Hallal, it is a reflection of the anti-vaccine movement and a lack of sense of urgency. “In an organization where the Govt is not so serious, people do not feel the urgency of getting vaccinated.”
Information from the O Estado ds Palo newspaper.
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