Agribusiness and oil should lead Brazil to largest primary surplus in historical series – Money Times

Hey Agricultural business It is the main strength of the results achieved by the Brazilian trade balance In 2023, he says Itaw Baba.

until august, The accumulated primary surplus amounted to 62.4 billion US dollars, Growth of 43% compared to the same period last year and record numbers are expected to continue until the end of the year, driven by strong soybean, corn and cellulose crops.

Itaú BBA projects the country’s trade balance Brazil End of 2023 with a surplus exceeding $90 billion The largest size since measurements began in 1989.

Unlike other cycles, this time, the increase in the trade surplus is caused by an increase in the volume of exports, not in prices.

The balance of exports compared to imports as well He got “a little help” from the country’s oil production surge. OPEC expects the country to be able to produce up to 4 million barrels per day by the time the lights go out in 2023.

Martin Castellano, director for Latin America at the Institute of International Finance, says that despite the disruptions caused by the temporary tax on oil exports, the country’s energy sector is thriving. Brazil It is considered a major factor in increasing exports.

“A diversified export base will help the country achieve a trade surplus of more than 3% of GDP this year,” Castellano points out.

Surplus and the “Switzerland” of Latin America

The impressive performance of Brazilian agribusiness in 2023 has been closely watched by international analysts, including Robin BrooksChief Economist at the Institute of International Finance – also known as “Bald Goldman” (in reference to his previous job).

Brooks has repeatedly highlighted the strength of Brazil’s trade balance in 2023, which, according to him, It could make the country the “Switzerland” of Latin America.

Looking at the August data, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance rates Brazil as the “world’s agribusiness superpower,” reflecting the continued improvement in the export of agricultural commodities. “This year is no exception. Brazil is growing.”