Trump is gaining strength in the polls, but the race with Kamala Harris remains close

According to the RealClear Polling aggregate, the Republican appears with 48.5% of voter preferences, a marginal advantage of 0.1 percentage point over the Democrat.

Logan Cyrus and Saul Loeb/AFPAt least three opinion polls in recent days have shown that Trump and Kamala are numerically tied at the national level

With just over a week to go before the US election, voting intention polls and mathematical models continue to show a close race between the former president. Donald Trump And Vice President Kamala Harris. At least three opinion polls in recent days have shown that the two are tied numerically at the national level.

According to RealClear’s overall polling, Trump appears with 48.5% of voter preferences, a marginal advantage of 0.1 percentage point over Harris. At the beginning of this month, the Democrat led by two percentage points. The tool also shows that the Republican is now ahead in key states that will decide the election, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina.

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On the other hand, the aggregation measured by statistician Nate Silver shows a mixed picture: According to his calculations, Harris leads nationally by 1.2 percentage points.

In this context, The Economics magazine’s mathematical model, which includes opinion polls and other variables, indicates a 55% probability of Trump winning, compared to 45% for Harris. Likewise, a similar 538 tool gives a Republican a 54% chance of winning.

*With information from Estadão Conteúdo
Published by Carolina Ferrera