US elections must be halted in Pennsylvania; Understand why

History and mathematics help us understand why the state of Pennsylvania in the United States can change the course of leadership in the richest country on the planet. With nearly 13 million people and the largest Electoral College among the so-called “swing states,” Pennsylvania has historically been a must-stop in the race for the White House, and in the past 12 elections, the state has elected 10 presidents.

If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania, she has a 91% chance of becoming president, according to a study conducted by American statistician Nate Silver. If Donald Trump wins the state, there is a 96% chance that a Republican will return to the Oval Office.

Whoever gets 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes the next president of the country. Each of the 50 states, including the capital Washington DC, has a predetermined number of electoral colleges. California is the largest with 54 votes, followed by Texas with 40 votes. Smaller states like Alaska and Wyoming have 3 votes each.

With some states continuing to vote for either Republican or Democratic candidates, the US election is essentially determined by seven swing states where the race is open: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and heavily favored Pennsylvania. Of all the decisive states, Taylor Swift was the most prominent with 19 votes.

White, conservative and religious people – but not much

In the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by one percentage point: 50.0% of the state’s voters supported Biden and 48.8% supported former President Donald Trump. In the previous election, when Trump faced off against Hillary Clinton, the Republican Party won the state.

To understand the behavior of Pennsylvania voters, it is necessary to analyze local demographics: white, elderly, and religious populations. The median age of adults in Pennsylvania is 52, slightly older than the median age for all Americans, which is 48.

Two in ten Pennsylvanians have some college education (22%), five percentage points less than all Pennsylvanians (27%). Almost 80% of the population considers themselves white and it is one of the places with the lowest proportion of Hispanics – just 5%.

When asked about their conservative identity, 37% declared themselves conservative and 36% moderate. Liberals are only 25%. In terms of religion, 68% of the local population professes Christianity, of which 41% are Protestants and 26% are Catholics. 24% of those interviewed reported no religion.

Election 2024

Almost evenly across all polls in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are alternating leads, according to the research firm. At Platform 538, collating data from multiple agencies, the Democratic candidate polled 47.9% of the vote, a practically irrelevant margin compared to Trump, who garnered 47.4% local support.

The Republican Party plans to visit several Pennsylvania municipalities in the coming days, including a rally in Scranton, the hometown of incumbent President Joe Biden. Kamala Harris’s team is counting on reinforcements to fend off Republican attacks in the region: Former President Barack Obama attended a Democratic rally in the state capital of Pittsburgh on Thursday (10) and called on black voters to support the incumbent. to the White House.

“This election is going to be close because more and more Americans are still suffering,” Obama said. “What I don’t understand is: Why does anyone think that Donald Trump is going to shake things up in your favor?”

It is worth recalling that in Pennsylvania in July, Donald Trump was hit by a bullet in the right ear. The Republican, who graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, has been flitting across America with his vibrant image of himself projecting the image of a strong and fearless leader. In that historical picture, the main state of Pennsylvania fills the bill.