Brazil will have a new system to improve weather forecasting | Energy & Science

Brazil is about to upgrade its supercomputing system to improve weather forecasting. At the beginning of the month, the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), a research unit of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), published the notice and reference for the acquisition of a new supercomputing and data storage device. High-performance data.

The equipment will be installed in Cachoeira Paulista, within the city of São Paulo, where the Inpe Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) is located. It is essential for improving existing numerical models and meteorological and climate products, as well as for developing new products that allow more accurate simulations, which are essential for weather, climate and environmental forecasts and the study of climate change.

Numerical modelling products are useful, for example, in the healthcare sector, where they can be used to support operational programmes for pandemic planning and response, and for monitoring critical events, which require high spatial resolution models to support the dispatch of very short-term aid alerts.

The new system will replace two supercomputers that are no longer able to perform all the weather forecasting and research the country needs, a report from BBC News Brazil. In this way, it should reposition Brazil competitively on the international stage.

“We have a climate emergency, with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events – heat waves and heavy rains – that cause damage and put civil society at risk,” explained physicist Saulo Ribeiro de Freitas, head of numerical modeling at the University of California, Irvine. “What’s happening is that Brazil has lost a lot in terms of its ability to provide relevant, accurate and timely information compared to other centers in the world.”

With the update, Inpe will be able to implement an Earth system model developed specifically for climate predictions over South America called Monan (Model for Ocean and Atmosphere Prediction), a unified community Earth system model. Its main goal is to be a numerical model that covers all geographic and temporal scales of the entire Earth system and its implications.

It is considered a “community” because it brings together the efforts of several Brazilian national institutions, such as universities, research centers, operational centers and various authorities in the fields of meteorology, environment, oceans, etc. MONANE can also get support from international centers and universities, as well as the private sector.

Through it, forecasting is knowing, for example, when, where and how much rainfall will fall, the intensity and duration of phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña and the effects of rising global temperatures. As the BBC points out, this information is essential to direct public investments and avoid human and material losses in extreme events, such as the recent floods in Rio Grande do Sul.

When the model is finished and the supercomputer is properly installed, Inpe will be able to make predictions on scales of a few days, weeks, months and years with greater accuracy of the intensity of the phenomenon and also on a smaller scale.

“The current American and European models can run forecasts from anywhere in the world. But the model is like a Formula 1 car: if you run it in Interlagos, it needs a different calibration than if you run it on a track in England,” explained Gilvan Sampaio, Inpe’s general coordinator.

Freitas added that using a model that includes Brazil and Latin America is also important for reasons of national sovereignty. “Their models [Estados Unidos e Europa] “We are concerned about the impact on the US and European regions. We need to have a model for our circumstances.”