Learn about the possible scenarios for the legislative elections in France 48 hours before the second round

In some cases, as in the French Calvados region, the former prime minister Elizabeth Bourne He takes advantage of the withdrawal of the LFI candidate in the hope of winning the RN. But there is no indication that the votes will automatically go to Borne, who was heavily criticized by the LFI party at the time of the pension reform, which Macron adopted through the constitutional clause known as “49-3” – a kind of decree that helped the president pass capital reforms without a vote of deputies, especially in this current and last term.

In the opposite case, the same uncertainty applies. In the Seine-Maritimes, the candidate of the right-wing party Horizons withdrew in favor of the radical left candidate Alma Dufour. But the party’s president, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, asked people not to vote for the far right or the far left. However, some candidates still seem to be clinging to the national pact to prevent a possible far right To power in France.

Moreover, voter turnout remains uncertain. The exceptional nature of the situation galvanized voters last week for the first round, with a historic turnout of nearly 70%. Opinion polls project a similar scenario, with 68% of voters expected to vote on Sunday.

Assembly seat expectations fluctuate.

A large body of research was published this week in FranceTaking into account the withdrawal of candidates between the two rounds. However, it relies only on hypothetical vote transfers, so it hardly measures the data accurately: there are 501 different polls, and 90 of them are presented as uncertain.

Finally, there are recent judicial decisions in the country that require the utmost caution. During the 2022 legislative elections, the latest opinion polls published two days before the vote predicted less than 50 seats for the far right. In the end, the National Front party led by Le Pen and Jordan Bardella won 89 seats at the ballot box, a major shock for the French.