A public employee creates a program that forecasts a dengue scenario in a South Carolina city for 30 days

The work of a servant from the city of Araquari led to the development of software, which is now a crucial ally of the Ministry of Health in the fight against dengue. The system can predict the epidemic scenario 30 days in advance.

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The mathematical model was developed by Renan de Souza, an IT analyst at City Hall, who also holds a PhD in high-performance computing. To operate the system, Renan uses a database with dengue notifications and people affected by the disease.

A public servant from Arakwari has created an innovation by creating an assistance system to combat dengue fever (Photo: Disclosure, Arakwari City Council)

Renan (right) received recognition at a sector conference for this initiative (Image: Disclosure, Araquari City Hall)

Monitoring the outbreak of mosquitoes that transmit the disease in the city (Photo: Disclosure, Arakwari City Council)

Fumigation is one of the practices used in the municipality to combat dengue fever (Photo: Disclosure, Arakwari City Council)

Vaccination for children aged 10 to 14 years is available in the municipality (Photo: Disclosure, Araquari City Council)

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— It is an autoregressive model that works with moving averages, that is, it looks at its previous state and so we can predict what will happen 30 days in advance, since dengue is a phenomenon with very strong seasonality. The firmness rate is 86%, which is statistically very high, Renan explains.

Based on the system developed, expectations are that dengue infection and transmission cycle will present a decline scenario in July, according to the city council. Currently, the municipal secretariat is also noticing a decline in cases, falling from 430 cases per day in April to 250 cases per day in June this year.

— Although we have been able to stop the increasing curve in dengue cases, it is very important not to be neglectful, take care of our yard and the surrounding area, report it if necessary, and at any sign of dengue, look for the nearest health unit because dengue Kill – confirms Diogo Lopez, Director of Health Surveillance in Araquari.

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