USDA says U.S. winter wheat estimates are at all-time low

Wheat production in Bessie, Oklahoma

By Julie Inverson

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday estimated 27% of U.S. winter wheat was in good condition, flat from the previous week and the lowest for the year since 1980. Corn planting is at a better than average pace with an exceptionally warm week.

Wheat estimates, reflecting drought in key areas of the Plains wheat belt, matched the average expectation of 11 analysts polled by Reuters.

In the late 1980s, in 1996 USDA records, best estimates for winter wheat fell below 30% in the 15th week of the calendar year.

Tight global wheat supplies and conflicts between two major grain exporters, Ukraine and Russia, have increased the importance of U.S. winter wheat production prospects.

While U.S. wheat exports in the current 2022/23 marketing year are at a 51-year low, the U.S. is still the world’s fifth-largest supplier of the food grain.

For corn, the USDA said Sunday planting was 8% complete, below analysts’ average estimate of 10% but above the five-year average of 5% as farmers took advantage of the mild weather.

“Some exceptionally warm and dry conditions squeezed between severe storms and cold snows allowed farmers to get their crops rolling,” Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naik said in a statement. Iowa is the largest producer of corn in the United States.

However, lower temperatures and rain over the weekend are likely to slow the crop’s progress this week, forecasters said.

The USDA’s first estimate of soybean progress for 2023 showed 4% planting completed, compared to the average analyst expectation of 2% and the five-year average of 1%.

The U.S. spring wheat crop was 3% planted, the government said, lagging both the average analyst estimate of 5% and the five-year average of 7%.