Does St. Joseph’s Day really bring good rain to Ceara? See what science and religion say – Ciara

The faith of people from Ciara, and people from the Northeast in general, has been around for a long time, this Rain on Saint Joseph’s Day It marks a good period of upcoming rains and prosperity. On the 19th of March, prayers turn to heaven, awaiting water for crops and refilling dams. But, after all, what do faith and science say about this relationship?

To remove doubt, the Diario do Norste Comparison of rainfall data for that date and the result of the rainy season, for the past 20 years, from the Cearense Meteorology and Water Resources (Funceme) Precipitation Almanac.

The basis was March 20 of each year, with the agency calculating volume between 7:00 am one day and 7:00 am the next.

“The data doesn’t exactly show this relationship,” says Miri Sakamoto, director of meteorology at the foundation. “no connection From a religious point of view, it’s just a coincidence. “

Indeed, in the past two decades, there has been practically no equilibrium in this connection. In 9 years, according to data from Funceme, this has been proven: when it rains a little in history, it rains a little on the court and vice versa. However, in the other 11 years, no causal relationship was found.

The comparison was made by observing the number of municipalities with precipitation on Saint Joseph’s Day. If it rained in less than half of Ceará’s 184 cities, the date was deemed not to have been “successful”.

For Meiry Sakamoto, one of the main hypotheses for the people from Ceará to have this belief is to conceive of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (Zcit), the main meteorological system that causes precipitation in the state.

“If we don’t have Zcit activities in the middle of March, in the middle of our season, it’s kind of complicated. I think the perception of people who don’t look at the data and satellites comes from this: If it doesn’t rain even here, maybe the court isn’t as good. Or It’s raining now, maybe it is,” he points out.

In addition, the date is close to another event: autumnal equinox. It refers to the change of season from summer to autumn, that is, the influence of the sun migrates from the southern hemisphere, where we are, to the northern one. This year, it is scheduled for the 20th.

You remember that the main saint associated with rain in Brazil is São Pedro. In the Catholic tradition, he is considered the guardian of the “gates of heaven” – that is, it is up to him to control the waters that come from above.

The importance of faith

On the other hand, the carpenter Joseph, husband of Mary and father of Jesus Christ, is not attributed any specific authority over the precipitation regime. He is known as Patron saint of families and professions.

As Father Clairton Alexandrino said, it is like a “coincidence” that March 19 falls on the rainy season in Ceará, since the date of the celebration was established in São José in 1621 by Pope Gregory XV.

Despite this, the parish priest of the cathedral considers it important to remember, on that day The intercession of the saints. “It is not a sin and it is not uncommon to pray to St. Joseph or any other saint to ask for rain. One can ask, God is the father of goodness and He is the one who sends rain.”

Humans don’t rain, so we can’t be proud to think that science solves everything. God is the rainmaker, nothing happens in this providential world that is not controlled – even by the twisted lines of history.

Clairton Alexandrino

Patron of Fortaleza Cathedral

According to the priest, the saint leaves an honest and upright life as the greatest example. He points out that “the meaning of our life is to live with God, and St. Joseph was very willing to serve him, who did not encounter any difficulties: he immediately responded to what God asked of him.”

Saint Joseph’s Day Bulletin

At least according to the forecast, this should be a rainy March 19th.

This Sunday, Funceme refers to a scenario Conducive to rain all over Ceara. It can occur throughout the day in all regions, particularly over Kariri, in the south of Central Sertão and Inhamones, along the coast and in Ibiabapa.

The weather should be “cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms,” ​​adds the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet).

The Center for Weather Forecasting and Climatological Studies (Cptec), affiliated with the National Institute of Space Research (Inpe), also reports a 90% chance of rain in all regions of the state.

The effect of history should only be known soon. The climate forecast for Funceme for the period March, April and May 2023 indicates a 40% probability of precipitation above normal, 40% around and 20% below.