Itapemirim claims it took nearly 600,000 flights, but that’s far from the truth

Advancing its sixth month of operations since its start in July this year, new Brazilian airline Itapemirim Transportes Aéreos, of the big road transport group of the same name, says it is already approaching the 600,000-passenger mark on its flights.

according to BanrutasThis statement was made by the head of the group, Sidney Beva, last Tuesday, November 30, during the Panrotas Forum 2021, when he commented that the airline expected an average occupancy of 30% on the first flights, but was operating at 70%. . “In these five months, we’ve carried nearly 600,000 passengers,” the executive said.

However, the information differs from reality based on what can be inferred from the company’s operations according to data from the National Agency for Civil Aviation (ANAC), which publishes monthly statistics on Brazilian air transport based on information provided by the companies themselves as the airlines.

current data

According to data from ANAC, the number of paid passengers carried by Itapemirim has evolved as follows since its debut:

– 19,044 people in July;

– 46526 in August;

– 91492 in September.

That totaled 157,062 in three months. The airline has not made the October data available to the regulator, and the November data will not be released until the end of December.

despite of Incomplete data To calculate the exact number of passengers until the end of November, Analysis of the company’s operations allows us to draw some conclusions, As shown below.

Since the beginning of September, Itapemirim has already used five Airbus A320 aircraft, which, according to data from ANAC, flew using 67% of the saved seats in the month.

Therefore, converting 91,492 passengers (67% occupancy) in September to an assumed 100% occupancy would result in approximately 136,500 passengers in each of the following two months.

Therefore, if in October and November, Itapemirim fly with 100% occupancy, for a total of approx 273,000 passengers in two months. Added to the total 157,000 as of September, there will be about 430,000 since the start of operations.

The only way to get close to 600 thousand people in this period is to take, in the past two months, about 170 thousand passengers plus 273 thousand. This could mean a 62% increase in the number of people, which is impossible given the 100% occupancy rate considered in the above calculation.

In this way, the only ways to get more passengers will be a Fleet increase or a Increasing the number of flights With the same number of aircraft to make up for 62% of the additional passengers.

The first possibility was excluded due to the fact that in the two months, October and November, the fleet remained the same, except for the last five days of November, when the sixth A320 went into operation.

second account

The second possibility, in turn, is ignored given the statistics of the tracking platform RadarBox, presented in the image below. Note that the number of flights increased by less than 20% in October compared to September, and in November there was still a decrease in flights, returning to the same level as in September.

The monthly trend seen in the RadarBox data corresponds to the ANAC-approved flights that Itapemirim will carry out. According to the agency’s system, from September to November the following number of flights are approved (not all flights are necessarily carried out, as there may be cancellations):

– 920 flights in September.

– 1028 flights in October;

– 944 flights in November.

Thus, there was a maximum of 1972 flights in October and November, which would result in a maximum of 319,000 passengers if everyone left with 100% of the 162 seats. Again, adding this value to 157 thousand in the first three months, the maximum total Possible is 476,000 people in the five months of operation.

So, bearing in mind that occupancy has barely remained close to 100% (it’s rare for any airline to fly this high) and that there hasn’t been a significant expansion of flights or planes, the company’s prospect is approaching, by the end of November ), from transporting nearly 600,000 passengers, or even 500,000.

We will continue to monitor the publication of official ANAC data and will provide updates on the evolution of the Itapemirim numbers, as well as those of other national companies, as we do monthly.